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Breakthrough Proportions, August 30

By September 1, 2021September 2nd, 2021Commentary

This data comes out on Mondays, so we will try to update it then.  We will need to figure out how to normalize or adjust this for the expected massive increase in school testing and child non-case cases, as this group is the bulk of the unvaccinated.  For now, pretty flat with last week in proportions.  I have hear anecdotally from physicians that a lot of cases in the hospital are actually vaxed persons.

Also want to remind you that that some estimating is involved here because the state refuses to report breakthroughs in the same manner it does all cases.  Right now they are using as a denominator the number of people fully vaxed through August 1.  A case is considered a breakthrough if it occurs more than 14 days after full vax.  So presumably they are tracking each individual case back to vaccination date.  We have to use reported, as opposed to day of and estimating on lags for breakthroughs, so we are comparing groups on somewhat different time lags.  That is likely more conservative–the actual proportion of breakthroughs could well be higher.  On a per capita basis, you clearly see the benefits of vaccination–with lower per capita rates among the vaccinated.  And I again remind you that the difference would be even starker if the previously infected but not vaxed group was pulled from the unvaxed cohort.  Thanks again to Dave Dixon.


Join the discussion 8 Comments

  • Brad says:

    Where are you getting breakthrough data through 8/25? The state health website is only currently reporting data through 8/1

    • Kevin Roche says:

      I sent you an email on this as well. the 8/1 date refers only to the number of people fully vaxed. Cases in that group are reported up through the date of report, or really about a day or two before that.

  • Narcissus Petit says:

    My employer is adopting a mandatory vaccine-or-weekly-test policy. I’d like to hear your thoughts on employer vaccine mandates in light of the rising number of breakthrough cases and declining severity of the Delta variant.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      I am not a big fan of vaccine mandates in general, little more on the fence in regard to health care. A lot of employers are rethinking in a tight labor market it is causing them problems to mandate

  • J. Thomas says:

    Sorry to hear of your situation. Please educate yourself regarding the legality of vaccine mandates. There are currently several law suits in process. Maybe you should remind your employer that they can be next ! How can your company mandate a PCR test that’s now recognized by the CDC as inadequate for purpose and is being dropped at the end of the year?

    If needed, make sure you get a cycle count of 20 agreed to up front. Also, since it picks up Flu viruses, as well as others, make sure the language in their agreement admits to this as well. They can certainly say that you should stay home if you have an high active viral load that puts others at risk of transmission, but then you’re on PTO !!

    Better yet, tell them to F-OFF and take out a full page ad in the local rag that explains the senseless treatment of their employees. All of these companies need to be put out of business ASAP. Free markets develop new options for their products or services. Maybe you can help that along !! Trust yourself, it’s a great time to be in the job market.!!

    • Kevin Roche says:

      just so everyone knows, the organization linked to gives any serious opponents of mask mandates, lockdowns, etc., a very bad name, they are truly crackpots and cranks.

  • Chuck says:

    So does J. Thomas. Your blog your rules.

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