This data comes out on Mondays, so we will try to update it then. We will need to figure out how to normalize or adjust this for the expected massive increase in school testing and child non-case cases, as this group is the bulk of the unvaccinated. For now, pretty flat with last week in proportions. I have hear anecdotally from physicians that a lot of cases in the hospital are actually vaxed persons.
Also want to remind you that that some estimating is involved here because the state refuses to report breakthroughs in the same manner it does all cases. Right now they are using as a denominator the number of people fully vaxed through August 1. A case is considered a breakthrough if it occurs more than 14 days after full vax. So presumably they are tracking each individual case back to vaccination date. We have to use reported, as opposed to day of and estimating on lags for breakthroughs, so we are comparing groups on somewhat different time lags. That is likely more conservative–the actual proportion of breakthroughs could well be higher. On a per capita basis, you clearly see the benefits of vaccination–with lower per capita rates among the vaccinated. And I again remind you that the difference would be even starker if the previously infected but not vaxed group was pulled from the unvaxed cohort. Thanks again to Dave Dixon.