Relative Vaxed and Unvaxed Cases in Minnesota, August 25

After the breakthrough infections work from yesterday, here is Dave Dixon’s latest update on the per capita ratio of vaxed and unvaxed cases.  That per capita ratio is more informative on relative risks.  Pay attention to this part:  the risk to the unvaxed is understated because a lot of these people had prior infections.  If you looked solely at unvaxed and uninfected, the relative risk would be much higher.  And the unvaxed group skews younger.   In any event you can see that unvaxed people have about 3 to 4 times the risk of being infected that vaxed ones do.   As with much other Minnesota data, the nature of the reporting is poor and forces you to make some estimates and assumptions, but directionally this is correct.