Chart thanks to Phil Kerpen on Twitter. At one point early on people were saying that the epidemic would kill 20% of the people the virus infected, then 5%, then 1%, then .5%. Turns out the real CFR or case fatality rate might be .2%. And for those who haven’t been reading for a while, we know that the reported infections or cases are likely only a fraction of the total. Many people have such mild or asymptomatic infections that they never get tested. So the infection fatality rate or IFR is likely .1% or less, down in influenza territory. Yep deadly virus ever. The chart shows the effect of better treatment, vaccines and also front-loading, where the most vulnerable get infected earlier in the epidemic.