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Let’s All Stay Calm

By July 15, 2021Commentary

Okay, we all need to remember that we are not going to let ourselves be terrorized any more by lying politicians and public health “experts”.  And even by some of the same people who tried to keep us on planet sanity during most of the epidemic.  I would encourage you all to go back and look at the video presentation I put together, it is still out there on YouTube.  As I repeatedly pointed out there, nothing that is happening now is unexpected.  And I try to repeatedly, periodically, remind readers about what is likely to occur.  Thanks to DD, hopefully in the next couple of days, my web people will get up some updated charts so you understand nothing bad is going on.

Right now we have some terrorists, and I mean you Alex Berenson, trying to convince people that we are having horrific case waves, predominantly among the vaccinated, so vaccines don’t work.  There are only two problems with his and others peddling of these myths.  One is that it isn’t true that there are large case waves in countries with high levels of vaccination.   People say really stupid stuff, like cases rose here by several hundred percent.  Uhhh, if you had 50 cases three weeks ago and now you have 300, oh my God, a horrifying 600% increase.  When numbers are small, absolute counts matter more.  Second, the cases are not occurring disproportionately among the vaccinated.  And finally, and most importantly, even when they occur among the vaccinated, they occur among the frail elderly.

And as usual, we are not getting one very key piece of information that would show definitively what garbage most of this is.  How about giving us some cycle number distribution information.  Remember PCR tests which just give you a binary outcome are worthless, they are far too sensitive and they pick up lots of non-infected or infectious positives.  I will bet large amounts of money that in the latest case wave, we are seeing lots of high cycle number positives.

I will take you back to the presentation, where I talk about the micro view of the interaction with the virus.  Viruses and pathogens are everywhere, we breathe them in constantly.  If you took a PCR swab of the upper respiratory tract of any human being you are going to find all kinds of good stuff.  And if you do enough testing you are going to find CV-19 in number of people’s upper respiratory tract.  You are finding fragments, you are finding virus in the process of being quickly cleared.  You may occasionally find an actual infectious person.  With all these vaccinated people, virus loads, as research has shown, are low.  You are going to be exposed, you are very unlikely to be infected or infectious.

And the distribution of serious illness is going to remain among the frail elderly and others with serious health issues.  As I have said before, if everyone is vaccinated, the age structure of the epidemic will look just like it did when no one was vaccinated.  We have an in-between period where it looks like hospitalizations and deaths went down proportionately among the elderly, but as more and more younger people are vaccinated, and because vaccination prompts a weaker and less durable immune response among the frail elderly, the age structure will return to its original shape.

And seasonality is real, Dr. Osterholm.  The case bump in the US is in the same states it was in this time last year, it is just way smaller.  In other countries, it is pretty much in the same countries that it was in this time last year.  Do you see a pattern?

So, yes, CV-19 is going to stick around.  People are going to get exposed, some are going to get infected, a few will get serious illness.  The age structure will look like it always has.  Variants get the blame but that is pure BS, it wouldn’t matter what the strain was.  As soon as a variant becomes dominant, we see that it doesn’t result in more serious illness and it really isn’t even more transmissible.  You can outcompete other strains without being more transmissible.

So here is the most important thing, and I have said this from the start.  WE MUST ADAPT; WE MUST LEARN TO LIVE WITH CV-19.  It isn’t going away, it will be here.  We can adapt too, it isn’t going to be any worse than the flu, and actually a lot milder for the young.  It mostly kills the very frail elderly with short life expectancies.   And it doesn’t matter what politicians and the experts say; Americans are not going back.  People are determined to return to living real lives.   A friend of mine who earlier in the epidemic was cheering lockdowns and business and school closures is now saying no more, I have to travel, I have to do the things I want to do with my remaining life.

So here we are where we always should have been, but now we have the benefit of the vaccine.  No more futile and damaging attempts at suppression.  Let’s get on with our lives and just learn to accept that we have a new pathogen that we are going to be sharing the planet with; CV-19.

Join the discussion 8 Comments

  • Rob says:

    If there were nasal swab PCR tests for 500 different viruses, we’d all test positive for at least 400 of them.

  • Don says:

    Kevin, what about the UK? Highly vaccinated and experiencing its second worst wave.

  • Kevin Roche says:

    Not sure what you mean by second worst wave? Among other things you need to keep in mind that at this time last year we didn’t have the same crazy testing regimes that we now have. But hospitalizations and deaths remain low in the UK.

  • Frank says:

    “I would encourage you all to go back and look at the video presentation I put together, it is still out there on YouTube. ”

    Link, please. I was unable to find it via YouTube search.

  • Kevin Roche says:

    okay, I am trying to track down the video, in the meantime if people want the presentation, send me an email via the contact form and I will email it to you.

  • Frank says:

    I believe I have found the video — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JF6_Q_HFzpk

    2020 12 01 KEVIN ROCHE HEALTHY SKEPTIC
    Jan 28, 2021

    The Rotary Club of Edina Morningside is pleased to share this program featuring Kevin Roche. The topic is Healthy Skeptic. Roche shares scientific data and metrics relevant to COVID-19 during the 2020-21 pandemic.

  • rob says:

    I’m wondering what happens in the future if/when a far more dangerous virus appears. How should it be dealt with? Is there ever a situation when things like lockdowns etc are a good idea?

  • Kevin Roche says:

    I don’t know what will happen but the precedent we have set is terrible

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