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Year-Over-Year Comparisons

By April 19, 2021Commentary

These are hard comparisons to do, when it comes to cases because of the vast difference in testing, when it comes to hospitalizations and deaths, because of vaccinations.  The level of spread was probably just not as extensive last spring either, as the vaccine was new.  But DD did his usual sterling work to show us some comparison, by day.  When you look at the case chart, remember that we are testing now at probably ten times the level last year.  Interesting to note the divergence between ICU and non-ICU hospitalization ratios in the two years.  This probably reflects vaccination among the elderly shifting hospitalizations to younger groups who are healthier and wind up in the ICU less.  It also reflects the uncertainty of treatment last spring, when everyone just got sent to the ICU.  But note that there are more hospitalizations, suggesting we would have had a more serious wave this spring.  The relative decline in deaths this spring is quite noticeable, but remember this is date of report info.

Join the discussion 3 Comments

  • Peter J Genot says:

    Kevin, good information. However, for it to be more meaningful, I would ask, “Has anyone done a similar analysis for influenza?” Is so, then a comparison between COVID-19 and influenza would be a more meaningful indicator of just how serious COVID-19 really was.

    • Kevin Roche says:

      Influenza was included and has disappeared. I think CV-19 has substituted for flu and is accounting for a lot of deaths that otherwise would be flu related.

  • Peter J Genot says:

    Yes. I understand that appears to be the case. I was referring to the years prior to COVID-19. Has anyone performed similar analyses and comparisons going back ten years or twenty years or more? In other words, just how serious was COVID-19 relatively speaking? Statistically more significant or not than influenza? The Hong Kong flu? The Spanish flu? Or is it that we won’t be able to make those comparisons because the analyses of COVID-19, such as hospitalization rates, ICU rates, etc., were not done for other illnesses in the past?

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