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Proportion of Cases by Age Group

By March 22, 2021Commentary

Thanks once again to DD for magnificent work.  As I mentioned I am trying to figure out a way to track and show the potential effect of vaccinations.  Since we are basically vaccinating going from oldest people to younger, it should show up in the proportion of cases, hospitalizations and deaths in those older groups, with falling percent of each.  Here is an animation of cases from August til now.  You can watch the slightly changing proportion of cases.   I will try to publish this at least once a week so we can see if there is a change.  Unfortunately the lag on getting cases for a specific date they were detected on relatively complete is about 10 days in Minnesota, and the development of adaptive immunity takes a few weeks, but we really should see the effects, even with favorable conditions for transmission, pretty shortly.  The heading at the top of chart changes with the week being shown.  There also is some weirdness around the time that the DOH dumped the 138 deaths.  Not clear what they actually did with the cases associated with those deaths.

Join the discussion 5 Comments

  • Great stuff. I’d ask if it is possible to judge hysteria by age group? Maybe the number of tests (pos vs neg) by age group reflects a mass hysteria? Also, by age group, how many vaccines have been given to those who took a test (pos or neg) compared to those who got the vaccine and never tested? I am not a scientist, so i don’t know if those things would have a meaning, separately or in some correlation

  • dell in Minneapolis says:

    Forgive me, but it’s all about deaths not cases.

    It would be helpful to overlay deaths by age group on the same animation.

    Indeed, the more cases the better and the wider and faster immunity spreads.
    Like the seasonal flu, 1-2,000,000 cases are needed in Minnesota.

    The Wuhan Flu doesn’t impact the young, so ignore the young.

  • Ann in L.A. says:

    I thought the LA hospitalization data was going to show that, but the oldest cohort tracked bounced back up last week after significant declines in previous weeks.

    http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dhs/1070348_DHSCOVID-19Dashboard.pdf

    It’s the last page of the doc that I look at for this. The entire doc tracks two sets of hospitals: 4 DHS hospitals and 70 LA County 911-recieving hospitals. The DHS are run in coordination with the county, the 911-recieving are pretty much the 70 largest, non-county hospitals in the area.

    The problem with the trendline is that it is by percentage of cases, and the lines have to add up to 100%. It doesn’t track the overall decline in cases–which has been dramatic in L.A. since the peak in early January. We’re getting to the levels of hospitalizations where small numbers of patients can produce large swings in the proportions of cases by age.

    For example, the three USC hospitals currently have a combined total of 13 covid patients (https://www.keckmedicine.org/coronavirus/). If two elderly patients come in, it’s not really statistically significant in the greater scheme of things, but it could dramatically shift USC’s age demographics.

    The weekly data for the county should post late Tuesday or Wednesday, then we’ll see if the uptick continues of if it was a blip.

  • Ann in L.A. says:

    The new data for the week is out for L.A. County, and last week’s spike in 65+ DHS hospitalizations has in fact dropped again. Last week was a blip. Strong declines in the first group to get vaccinated.

    http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dhs/1070348_DHSCOVID-19Dashboard.pdf

  • Kevin Roche says:

    Yes, I think we are seeing the same thing here.

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