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The Seasonal/Geographic Pattern, Part 1

By March 3, 2021Commentary

I know there is a pattern, I know there is a formula, I don’t think anyone has it nailed yet.  DD has done yeoman’s work trying to help figure this out.  I will summarize some of what seems to be there.  But here is the coolest thing yet, an animation he did of the hospitalization rate changes over time.  You can see the movement from light color to darker.  Hospitalization rates are better to use than cases because of testing and other issues.  If you don’t think there is some geographical/seasonal pattern, this is pretty convincing evidence that something is there.  Amazing to visualize it like this.

Join the discussion 8 Comments

  • Matt says:

    Very cool! One thought; rather than having the color scale be the same across states (0-97/100k) have it be 0-100% of each state’s peak hospitalization rate. Might more clearly show the progress on the. Curve, especially for states that didn’t peak as high.

  • Steve says:

    This is a genius display. As I understand the numbers regarding overall deaths, 2020 was not greater than 2019 which tells me deaths from heart disease, stroke, etc. were thrown into the China virus count. Not amazing that people still are freaked out by CASES. They are too stupid to understand that a case is nothing more than you tested positive and then they never have any idea about the cycle time. This “pandemic” is not a pandemic in my opinion.

    Isn’t is odd that no one calls out for fact checkers. Oh no if we did that we would see the real reason behind the lockdowns POWER. In my career as an industrial engineer/healthcare consultant if we dared present a plan with out double checking all the facts we’d be looking for a new job. Absolutely no one is validated this data.

  • dirtyjobsguy says:

    I watched the pattern here in CT vs other “hot spots”. I’m in a low risk suburb of Hartford and most of the risk is in the cities. It’s interesting to see how much higher CT peaks than other places. I think this has a lot to do with high density housing in the cities. A lot of people living in a single house or apartment are known to have high risk. So a seasonal variation is amplified here

  • J. Thomas says:

    Can you imagine if our ‘scientists’, tens of thousands employed by the ‘Government’, actually spent their time working on something important like the ‘equation’ and spread/replication conditions instead of the woke politically driven cherry-picked data pseudoscience that we been fed by the establishment.

    The vaccine was created over a weekend in January 2020, right after the gene sequencing, and sent to the NIH for testing. They STOPPED the show (many theories on this being ‘Trump’-eted). We’ve lost hundreds of thousands of lives in this country, multiples globally, trashed hundreds of thousands of healthy people’s lives and livelihoods because of the governments ‘control’ of the process. The NIH & FDA should be disbanded !!!

  • GrantLR says:

    Look at the historical data for the flu….

    Most years, you see a “two peak” pattern in the US, first peak in December, second peak in February.

    Then compare to US population distributions and geography / climate considerations —

    You have two clusters of populations in close-enough climate zones – First, you have your Northern cluster (NYC Metro, Boston Metro, Mid-Atlantic metros [Philly-Baltimore-DC], Chicago Metro and the neighboring Rust Belt Metros [Cleveland-Detroit-Pittsburgh-Columbus-Indianapolis-Buffalo]. Then you have your “sun” cluster: (LA/San Diego Metro, Miami Metro, Atlanta and N.Florida Metros, various Texas Metros, Phoenix-Las Vegas-Albuquerque, New Orleans-Mobile-etc.).

    Somewhere in between those clusters you have a group of “temperate” locations — Charlotte-Raleigh-Lnoxville-Memphis-Nashville-KC-Louisville-OKC-Denver-SLC-San Fran-Portland-Seattle — but that’s a significantly smaller population than the two other “climate clusters”. (There’s also outlier cold areas – upper midwest North of Chicago, Alaska… or the island climate of Hawaii…. but again, much smaller populations).

    If climate / weather related issues drive a lot of respiratory disease infection rates, then a “two peak curve”, reflecting the various single peaks of clusters of population centers – is exactly what you’d expect to see.

  • Joe - the non epidemiologist says:

    The chart follows the hopes-simpson curve for influenza pandemics as documented by Edgar hopes-simpson in the 1980’s

    Odd that the “experts” never mention the Hope-Simpson curve

  • Max says:

    Two things need to happen to avoid a bloody civil war.

    1) re-draw State boundaries
    2) revive the 10th Amendment

    BTW, this graphic would be a lot more telling if done at the county level

  • Rob says:

    The seasonality is definitely more obvious since October compared to prior months. My conclusion is that by may or June the virus was endemic. And that most of the under-70 population is capable of combating the virus with their natural immune system function – if anything the masks and lockdowns retarded this natural immunity buildup.

    The sad part is the panic over the novelness of the virus caused many health care providers to throw out existing knowledge for novel approaches that made mortality worse in the early going. It seemed that intubation was tried as a first resort early and over time word spread to caregivers that they should ease up on that and let the patient lie on one side if it provided relief. The panic mongering now seems limited to public health bureaucrats that haven’t seen patients in years and those vulnerable to lawsuits if they don’t follow the misinformed crowd.

    Maybe this is just my emotion taking over but after watching my brother die of cancer a couple years ago I seemed to notice the health care providers being more concerned about collecting data than treating the patient. My brother was a pharmacist for 42 years so he was not surprised but I am not in the health care field so I dismissed my observation as the anger stage of grief. But my sister is a med tech in a blood lab and I was with her when she spoke to a nurse at the research hospital my brother was transferred to. She asked the nurse “is it possible you could do a blood draw from his stent to save him a stick once in a while?” The nurse responded “He has a stent?”

    It just seems like patients are being managed by data collection while actual observation is passé.

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