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And the Cohort Analysis One More Time

By March 1, 2021Commentary

Thanks to DD on this as well.  The usual reminder, this takes deaths by week of actual death, uses median time to hospitalization and cases to work backward and create a cohort of cases and identify outcomes by cohort.  This is really important.  The state should do it and never has.  It is the best way to see trends in the most important outcomes.   I have only included the hospitalization and death rates as calculated for each week.  You can see that since the summer, hospitalization rates have stayed in a narrow band.  And the death rate kicked up slightly at the start of the year, but generally has also been very stable.

And I just want to point out again that that death rate hovers around 1% of cases, but if the state is right that we have 10x cases, it really is .1% of infections, and if there high end estimate of 100x were right (you will recall that would put the population of Minnesota at 48 million people) it would be .01% of infections.  I think the right number is more like 3-5x, so the real rate is .2% or .3% of infections.

Join the discussion 6 Comments

  • Rob says:

    Is there a way to compare these statistics with 2010-2019 statistics for influenza/pneumonia?

    • Kevin Roche says:

      I think the problem is that we haven’t done this with flu, we don’t test everyone, we don’t call every death a flu death. so I am not sure how to do an analysis that would be true apples to apples

  • J. Thomas says:

    Outstanding and thank you for the info. Very curious what happens to this cohort analysis if you include only the 18-70 age range, our potential working population. I’m guessing it further justifies a FULL return to work for EVERYONE !

    • Kevin Roche says:

      should have updated age structure charts up soon, and as they always do, those charts show that for the general population the risk is extremely small

  • J. Thomas says:

    The age filtered cohort data (18-70) compared to the history of flu deaths would be interesting. I’ll bet the Flu wins in the killer category. Same old song and dance I suppose … Let’s take the choke hold off of our country !!

  • Peggy A Lewis says:

    Hi Kevin…I’ll also leave this link on Twitter. Sadly, you never come through on my feed and it’s frustrating. I read you here on the blog.

    I’m posting this link to Nashville’s DOH’s story about obfuscation regarding restaurants because like Cuomo’s dirty deeds, Tennessee seems to also have cities with Health Departments that have taken the lives of the people, both economic and health, into their own hands. This probably won’t get much attention because its The Washington Examiner and no publications besides the MS seem to have any clout.

    I believe the Minnesota Department of Health is also conspiring. It may be that they believe they are somehow helping and that makes it ok, but it’s not. I didn’t sign up for any of it and I want it to stop.

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