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Active Cases Updated Once Again

By March 1, 2021Commentary

Thanks once more to DD for keeping up this analysis and doing the charts.  As you would expect if you follow the headlines, not withstanding variant terrorism, active cases have diminished greatly and may be plateauing, at what appears to be a higher level than that in the summer, but probably is not due to testing madness.  Look at that curve, you can really see the effect of the IB’s mitigation orders can’t you.  The little spikes or glitches on the way up or down are largely due to testing changes, especially around holidays.  That is a pretty classic epidemic curve.  As usual the charts with raw number and percent changes tell you the most.  And one of the things they tell you is the effect of testing, with much lower volume on weekends, which gives you that sawtooth effect.

Join the discussion 4 Comments

  • I will guess that are good part of this is that FINALLY, the public — on its own without the help from medical leadership, Dr OsterHimmler, or the tone deaf primary care community — has gotten the memo on vitamin D. Influenza and CV19 will show far less morbidity going forward. Fix the phoney PCR testing (stop most of it), make the public aware of other elements in a healthy immune system, and we will go back to getting a cold and recovering…and attending life as usual. The near total absence of official advice from Fauci on down to your local MD in taking even just vitamin D in amounts > the ridiculous recommended daily allowance of 600 IU/d is now out in the open. 25-30 IU/lb/day! The public has gotten the clue.

  • Ann in L.A. says:

    First Trust Financial has a blog and puts out a one-sheet covid summary each week. They usually add a few interesting stats to the basic ones. One they have been posting each week is the % of the country with some form of immunity. They take the total number of confirmed cases, use CDC’s estimated multiplier for actual probable exposure of 3-4x, then tack on the number of people immunized. They are currently estimating over 50% of the US has covid antibodies already. That is likely not spread evenly, and is much higher in the most-susceptible communities. For example, they chart vaccines by age, and have over 54% of people age 75+ have had at least one dose as of 2/24.

    Last week, they pointed out that more children 0-17 have died of the flu in each of the 2010-11, 2012-13, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-2019, 2019-2020 flu seasons than have died from covid this year.

    Per Chris above, I take gummy Vit-D’s to the tune of around 6000 IU/day and have tested blood levels of 46 ng/ml.

  • Kevin Roche says:

    the First Trust reports are good and I think their estimate of total infected is probably closer to the truth.

  • SteveD says:

    ”They are currently estimating over 50% of the US has covid antibodies already.’

    The level of immunity though is probably much higher than 50%. I seen quite a few analyses that ignore the concept of cross-immunity. That is the people that have various levels of immunity to Covid19 by virtue of exposure to other coronaviruses, other vaccinations etc.

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