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God, I Hope This Ends Soon, But in the Meantime…..

By February 18, 2021Commentary

Another big picture, what have we learned, summarization.  And let us start with an interview in which  charter member of the Axis of Evil, Andy Slavitt, now advising our brain-dead president on CV-19 matters, which seems appropriate, when asked to explain California doing worse than non-lockdown Florida, stumbled around and then said, there is so much we don’t know about this virus. (Here is the clip.)  No, Andy, there is so much you don’t know about it, and apparently the Governor of Florida knows a lot more than you do.  This guy increasingly reveals himself to be a dimwitted attention-seeker.  If you honestly think there is a lot you don’t understand about the epidemic, which is a very legitimate position, then stop telling people what they have to do based on your ignorance.  And maybe pay more attention to people who have been more accurate about the epidemic, instead of just talking to Osterheimlich, and Faux Fauci.

One big thing I have re-learned and had reinforced during the epidemic is most experts are idiots.  They rest on their laurels, they don’t keep up, they resist innovative thinking and they love the spotlight.  They are the last people I trust.  Zero self-awareness or self-critical ability.  I am talking about you Fauci.  And you Osterholm.  These guys saw this epidemic as the opportunity for indulging in the adulation of the media, and a lot of self-adulation as well.  That is why this site is called the healthy skeptic; always adopt a very, very healthy skepticism.  Get the facts for yourself, think for yourself, challenge your thinking, read everything you can, learn basic disciplines like statistics and experimental design.  Don’t be a slave to expert opinion.  And if this helps, remember that 50% of doctors graduated in the bottom half of their class, and that applies to any other profession.  Your own brain works great; use it.

So here is what I believe we know, but test it with your own thinking.

  1.  CV-19 is a serious public health problem, it causes a lot of serious disease and deaths.  Is it as bad as portrayed in the media?  No.  Cases and deaths are counted in an unprecedented way.  If we did the same thing with influenza, I think the two pathogens would look pretty similar.  And CV-19 appears to be very substitutive of influenza; it kills a lot of people who otherwise would die of influenza.
  2. CV-19 is one of a series of coronaviruses, more are likely to arise, this one is likely to become endemic.  We better figure out how to adapt to it without destroying our lives.  It is going to be around, no matter what we do.
  3. Like most respiratory viruses, this one is pretty infectious, fairly easily transmitted–in certain conditions.   Wish we could tell what those conditions are, but the formula is pretty complex.  The conditions are clearly best at certain times of the year in certain geographies.  There are likely meteorological factors at work, which interact with other factors, like age, population density, pre-existing immune status and so on.  The formula, if there is one, is multi-factorial.
  4. Like most respiratory viruses, this one mutates a fair amount and as you would expect, mutations that increase infectiousness are favored.   All a virus cares about is replicating; that is its only goal.  Whatever furthers that goal, gets selected.  Mutations may help evade an existing immune response, but those responses are still likely to minimize disease and limit spread.  There is some risk that with a virus that is already widely spread, trying too hard to suppress it could lead to a truly ugly variant.  One that, say, had a much more stable lipid envelope and survived on surfaces or in the air indefinitely.  A little bit of live and let live wouldn’t be the worst approach.  So far, none of the CV-19 variants seems particularly worrisome.
  5. There is immense heterogeneity among the population in susceptibility to infection, in infectiousness, and in the nature of disease, if any, resulting from infection.  The dose needed to cause an infection in a person likely has enormous variation.  This heterogeneity likely is largely due to existing immune status variation.  How strong and how diverse is a persons innate and trained immune system, does the person have cross-reactive coronavirus adaptive immunity that in some way controls infection or infectiousness.  There is an enormous difference in impact of CV-19 among the young and among the frail elderly.
  6. We don’t know how many CV-19 infections there have been because there are so many asymptomatic or mild cases.  Serious illness occurs in well under 1% of cases.  I suspect the true fatality rate is around one to two-tenths of a percent.  In the general, non-long-term care population, the fatality rate is miniscule.  This pathogen, for almost the entire population, has a very low burden of illness.
  7. The response to this epidemic has been unprecedented as well–unprecedentedly stupid.  It was based on poor data from China, poor modeling from England and everywhere else, and me-tooism among political leaders.  Rank panic, hysteria and mass delusion.  I think China’s leaders said “we can do whatever we want to our population, let’s see if Western leaders are stupid enough to do the same things in their countries”.  Never before have we attempted to lockdown societies, close schools, close businesses.  Pure insanity.
  8. The modeling of the epidemic used by governments has been pathetic.  No accounting for seasonality, no accounting for that variability in susceptibility or infectiousness, overweighting the value of attempts to suppress.  The virus laughs at our models.
  9. No intervention has made a significant difference, beyond what voluntary human behavior would have done.  We know this by looking at case curves.  We might momentarily slow transmission, but it doesn’t last.  But governments are too pig-headed to admit that they made a mistake and change course.  Instead, they have implemented a campaign of terror to convince the population how dangerous CV-19 is and how necessary those futile suppression efforts are.  Masks are the worst example of this, as data and science has been twisted and distorted to try to demonstrate an effect that doesn’t exist.
  10. What the interventions have done is significantly weaken democratic societies, through the use of non-democratic decision-making by mini-dictators.  This should horrify people, but has been meekly accepted by most of the population.
  11. The interventions have ruined businesses, caused the loss of good jobs, worsened other health outcomes, irreparably damaged the lives of most children, led to further domestic and child abuse, worsened government finances and so on, with no noticeable effect on the progress of the epidemic.  The costs of these interventions will far outweigh any damage done by the virus for years, possibly decades.

How cheerful is that!!


Join the discussion 15 Comments

  • Steve says:

    Way back when the China virus appeared in the USA I had a buddy who provided the canned answer. I’m going to wear a mask because I don’t want to be the cause of someone getting sick. I was astonished. I replied, are you sick? Do you have flu like symptoms? No, he said but you never know. I though uh oh we are in big trouble. If this guy said this I can just imagine what’s coming next. And, here we are one year later. People are scared to death, given up liberty and they can hear or see what is obvious. This virus is and has become a political weapon; not just in the USA but worldwide. It appears there are two axioms that have been denied 1 follow the money, and 2 people seek power and control; I fear this is where we are and people are too afraid to admit it.

    My wife and I are 68 years old. We will NOT take the vaccine. We have never taken a flu vaccine. Our focus is on good health, building a good immune system and if we are sick we stay home (hasn’t happened for quite awhile) you know, the common sense things. We take D3, Magnesium, Vit C and Zinc every day along with several other vitamins. We go everywhere, do what we want. I’ve been to the January 6 march in DC, played baseball in Florida, been on airplanes and all the while we have spent the last 9 months caring for my mother-in-law, in hospice in our home. She was bed ridden for most of the time. Hospice service came to our home with great assistance. She passed 2 weeks ago but all through this episode people have been in and out of our home constantly. She said please, I don’t want to see people in masks. We also committed to her that she would NEVER go into a nursing home

    My wife and I provide tuition assistance so that our 2 grandchildren can attend Catholic School. There has not been one incident in 9 months. The children K and 3rd grade have been in person every day and not as much as a snifle.

    The American people better wake up. We are being manipulated and if there is no push back the result will be dire.

  • Al Gardiner says:

    “…remember that 50% of doctors graduated in the bottom half of their class…”

    You made my day with this one.

  • Ron Sinclair says:

    I enjoyed your piece today on “here’s where we stand”. It also brings to mind something I observed several months back. I am Canadian My mother was born in Saskatchewan just before the Spanish Flu hit in 2018. She was one of four very young children in the family, non of whom became infected. Her father’s job as town clerk was to go around to the immigrant settler’s crowded accommodation in the morning and get the names of those who had not made it through the night. A story I was told was of three guys sharing the same bed. In the morning one of them was dead.So the disease was pretty deadly alright. I recently saw a picture taken from back then of three farmers or farm workers and they were all wearing masks. The thought was – a 100 years have gone by and we are still using the same solution they did back then? OMG.

  • Ann in L.A. says:

    12. We have come a long way in knowing how to treat CV-19. We have found existing drugs that work, developed new treatments, found better angles of attack, and generally understand better how CV-19 acts inside a seriously-ill patient. Hospitalization rates and fatality rates are now a shadow of what they were in the spring of 2020.

  • Harley says:

    With the spotlight shining on some of these doctors and experts courtesy from a lazy media. Unable to question anything and benefiting from the continuing anxiety.

  • M. McRae says:

    All excellent points. The one that stands out, and concerns me, is point number 4.

    I worry that the npi suppression efforts may make things worse: Forcing mutations through unnatural means may lead to escape mutations that mimic the genetic code so precisely that the immune system will eventually fail to recognize the virus entirely.

    How likely is this? Who knows? Well, no one does, actually! Because what we have undertaken is an unprecedented, colossal human experiment.

  • LeeS says:

    I’ve seen the comment below numerous times, but no link to any data or i’ve missed it. Can anyone supply this? It seems plausible that being exposed at a low level continuously would be good for our immune system and give more asymptomatic cases which would be good.

    “There is some risk that with a virus that is already widely spread, trying too hard to suppress it could lead to a truly ugly variant.”

    • Kevin Roche says:

      The theory would be that continually pressuring the ability of the virus to survive, replicate and spread would result in favorable selection of mutations that enhance those abilities. That would be offset by the success of the suppression measures in limiting virus, which limits opportunities for replication and consequently the creation of mutations. In a wide-open epidemic at one extreme, there are the maximum number of replication events, each of which is an opportunity for mutation, but probably little selective advantage for mutations. In a heavy suppression environment, fewer opportunities for mutation, but much more favorable environment for selection of those enhancing survival and transmission. Make sense?

  • Colonel Travis says:

    Gal-dang it, you’re on fire Kevin.
    Don’t stop

  • Missing is the hard and abundant data re the relationship between nutrition and virulence/morbidity. D, Zn, C, Se, A, and if over 45-50, melatonin. The faux pandemic would be over in 2 weeks if there were a public health focus on this similar to the otherwise worthless campaign on cholesterol.

    And no mention of cheap, repurposed drugs that given early cure the illness and can be used topically for prophylaxis making ANY mask use silly…ivermectin, HCQ, and nasal carregeenan.

    Kevin should be citing this stuff daily.

  • SteveD says:

    ‘mutations that increase infectiousness are favored’

    The good news is that mutations which decrease lethality are also favored – for the same reason.

  • Paul Ashley says:

    Two things. First, though some of if the politicians’ maintaining the fear us due to ignorance, willful or otherwise, and pig-headedness, a much greater amount is due to a desire for totalitarian transformation of the West.

    Second, it angers me that so many in the medical profession have fallen for the scam and worse, are participating in the promotion and enforcing of harmful edicts. Possibly the worst of the latter is mass masking, which sadly is still being pushed by Minnesota’s own Mayo Clinic.

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