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Coronamonomania Thrives in Darkness, Part 2

By February 7, 2021Commentary

Off we go, starting with another study relating to meteorological variables.  (SSRN Paper)   The researchers looked at the general pattern of deaths (not related to CV-19, just trying to establish a general baseline) for various age groups throughout the year in Toronto and the province of Ontario, Canada.  They identified a very clear seasonal pattern among the elderly, with deaths peaking in winter.  They then correlated this pattern with actual hours of sunshine and temperatures.  Particularly among the very old, colder temperatures and less sunshine was associated with more deaths.  They end up with a formula to predict deaths by age group based on the prior two weeks temperature and the prior four weeks of sunshine.  So that would be the baseline against which any impact of CV-19 would be measured.  Not explored is the actual causative reason for the association.  It is unlikely that the actual cold is causing many of the wintertime deaths.  It could be facilitation of respiratory or other infectious disease, it could be exacerbation of cardiac disease or other conditions.  The next step should be to explore the causes of death by age and see what changes in the weeks with colder temps and less sunshine.

This study comes from Missouri and covers the period March to October to examine, viral loads, virus variants and disease severity.  (Medrxiv Paper)   Over 130 samples were included in the genetic sequencing.  Several strains were responsible for most of the cases, with four coming to represent the majority of cases.  Viral strain did not appear associated with disease severity.  Interestingly, higher viral loads were associated with lower likelihood of hospitalization and shorter length of stay, contrary to the findings of most research.  The authors apparently adjusted for age and other factors, but I am a little suspicious that something was missed.

The development and persistence of immune response following infection is of great interest, and this paper examined the T cell response in children under 13 compared to adults.  (Medrxiv Paper)   The T cell response increased with age, particularly among helper T cells, while the killer T cell response tended to increase with time following infection.  Children tended to have lower antibody responses to beta coronaviruses, the family to which CV-19 belongs, which is a little surprising, but may account for the higher incidence of mild disease, as excessive inflammatory response may be avoided.  Overall, in both children and adults, the study adds to the body of research finding a significant and persistent adaptive immune response following infection.

And this paper also dealt with the immune response, in this case the B memory cell response.  (Cell Article)   The authors studied the development of these cells, which aid in production of antibodies upon attempted reinfection by the same or similar pathogens.   Over a six month period they found that the population of these cells grew and stabilized and indications were that there would be a lasting capability to respond to CV-19.  Interestingly, they also found evidence that cross-reactive memory B cells stemming from seasonal coronavirus infections were involved in the early response to the original CV-19 infection.

Ongoing research into the effects of the CV-19 terror campaign is important because only by helping the public understand this damage can we build support to eliminate coronamonomania.  This research from Denmark looked at countrywide rates of hospitalization and mortality for 15 widespread, non-CV-19, diseases.  (SSRN Paper)   The hospitalization rate for these diseases declined by 28% during the country’s spring lockdown and remained depressed through the end of the study period in November.  And, as you would expect, mortality rates for these diseases were therefore higher as well.  It couldn’t be clearer, the terror campaign has caused people to avoid needed care, which will have persistent effects for years.

And schools are a hot topic.  Here is another study from the UK on school reopenings in that country.  (SSRN Study)   Outbreaks in schools were examined, an outbreak being two or more cases in 14 days.  3% of primary and 15% of secondary schools had an “outbreak” by this definition.  The number of affected students and staff was very small across these outbreaks.  Consistent with other evidence, there were more cases in secondary schools.  And staff was more likely to be infected than students.  And it appears that staff probably got those cases in the community not from the students at school.

Join the discussion 4 Comments

  • john jacobson says:

    Perhaps fourth sentence in the second paragraph should be corrected to read “Disease severity did not appear associated with viral load.”

    Thanks for all of your work and commentary!

    • Kevin Roche says:

      actually it should have said viral strain was not associated with disease severity, my error. Thanks for the catch

  • Rob says:

    The SSRN link is broken. Just as well since the summary you provide has been well known by insurance companies and actuaries for decades if not longer.

  • Ellen says:

    People tend to get sick more during the winter because they’re inside more without opening the windows to air out the place, their immune systems are lower for want of D3/sunshine, getting chilled, low humidity, etc. Thought the RNA of viruses changed really fast… so isn’t COVID 19 only an “ancestor” to the present corona viruses? Gotta keep the hysteria going with masks, social distancing, 2 miles of fencing with razor wire, etc. The USA is at war and apparently our deep state enemies will be able to shut us down on all levels until we’re dead and our children are slaves.

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