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Active Cases Analysis Update

By January 27, 2021Commentary

Once again, this is how many likely infectious people there are in the state.  My current estimate is that we actually maybe have 5,000 to 10,000 infectious people in the state.  You can figure out what your odds are to running into one of them.  Could not be clearer that the fall/winter wave in Minnesota followed a pretty classic pattern, unperturbed by human efforts to change it.  You see a bit of shoulder pattern in the last few weeks suggesting some residual level of cases likely to be with us for some time.  The sawtooth pattern on the raw number daily change and percent change charts is a weekend low testing effect.  Will there be another wave in Minnesota in the spring?  If the vaccine is effective we certainly shouldn’t see the level of hospitalizations and deaths we experienced in past waves.  I also think total infections have led to a level of population immunity that would substantially slow transmission even in the absence of a vaccine.  We have to also come to grips with the issues of PCR test accuracy or find a better test to determine who is actually infectious, or we will just keep finding cases where they don’t exist.  Thanks again to DD for the charts.

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  • Chuck says:

    I just read “Dr” Osterholm said the next 6-14 weeks will be the “darkest yet”? I’d sure like Com Malcom to “chime in” on that! Also, I’d like Gov Walz to be “perfectly clear” regarding the botched distribution of the vaccine. And if KrisE could, “ummm, ya know” confirm if we have yet to see the impacts of the Christmas and New Year gatherings?

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