Last one for 2020/first one for 2021, a spillover version. A few leftover studies sitting around.
An interesting comparison of influenza cases and CV-19. (Lancet Article) Hospitalized flu cases from December 1, 2018, to February 28, 2019, were compared to hospitalized CV-19 cases from March 1 to April 30, 2020, in France. There were about twice as many CV patients, about 90,000, as flu patients, around 46,000, included, which likely reflects coding intensity in regard to CV-19. The flu patients were slightly older. CV patients were more likely to be obese, have diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. Flu patients more likely had heart failure and COPD. The CV-19 patients were almost three times as likely to die in the hospital. But here is the most interesting part, only 1.4% of the hospitalized patients for CV-19 were under age 18 versus 19.5% of those for flu. So which disease is more dangerous to children? Ten times more dangerous. And for those children with poor outcomes from CV-19, including death, obesity was frequently present.
This paper compared mortality rates across a number of European countries for the past few years. (Medrxiv Paper) 25 nations were included, with mortality rates from 2015 to the present examined. There was significant variability in mortality during influenza season across these countries. The researchers found that this variability was correlated with levels of CV-19 mortality. If a country had high influenza in prior years, it tended to have high CV-19 mortality. No correlation was found with a number of other factors including age structure, population density, latitude, GDP or government health spending. In one sense contrary to the dry tinder thesis, but that may be a partial explanation.
How does our immune system view CV-19? That is explored in this paper. (Bio Article) It presents a detailed perspective of how various components of the immune system react to infection by the virus. Technical but a good overview and gives a sense of how complex the response is. Also demonstrates how dysfunction of the immune system causes more severe disease.
Dr. Ioannidis is at it again. He and his collaborators wrote a paper showing again how suspect the Imperial College modeling efforts have been. (Medrxiv Paper) The Imperial Model purported to show great benefit of lockdowns, but the paper shows how that result was manipulated and that a more appropriate set of specifications finds no effect. I believe I may have said before that models only tell you what you tell them to tell you.
More on the increase in suicidal behavior among children during the epidemic. (AAP Article) Suicidal thoughts and attempts were 1.5 to 2 times greater in Texas during the epidemic period than in the prior year.
The CDC gives updated estimates of the actual incidence of CV-19 in the United States. (CDC Estimates) The projection is that there have been 91 million cases, and only 1 in 7 has been reported.