It is pretty apparent looking at epidemic curves around the world that the virus tends to zip up and zip back down in a matter of weeks. The Midwest, especially the upper Midwest, and the Rocky Mountain states have been the primary source of the case surge this time. No reason not to expect the same pattern. Look at the chart below, a moving average of cases in this area. (The last few days likely reflect test reporting lags.) Testing patterns may account for a little of the variation but the reality is that everyone is testing like crazy, for no real purpose. Interesting to see that the further south a state is, the lower the case level is, giving some credence to various weather variables being a driving factor in viral hardiness and activity. These states all have a variety of approaches to mitigation, and no clear pattern due to that. Note that Wisconsin got going a few weeks before Minnesota and looks to have plateaued, with Minnesota maybe a week or so away. We will see what the effect of Thanksgiving is, there will be much less testing, so probably fewer cases, but maybe all those get togethers will cause a case bump.