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Fun With Numbers in Minnesota, Part 1

By October 12, 2020Commentary

Trying to catch up on some analyses with the data.  Let us start with a few simple things.  Remember when the doubling time was such a big thing, back in May and June.  Doubling time is related to the transmission rate.  As soon as it started lengthening, it was dropped by the state like a hot potato and other measures substituted.   I still like to look at it.  So on October 6, which is pretty complete for cases from tests on that date, there were a little over 110,000 cases in Minnesota.  When were there about 55,000 cases?  July 27.  So, gee a doubling time of only, well, 68 days.  There are about 1500 cases reported for October 6 tests right now.  How long to double the current number of total cases if we had that every day, which we don’t?  Only 73 days, hmmm, that darned doubling time is still lengthening.

How is that mask mandate doing?  The state would prefer that you don’t ask.  For the umpteenth time I encourage you to go to YouTube and see what the Incompetent Blowhard had to say about the effect of masks when he issued the mandate.  He couldn’t have been clearer–he said they would greatly reduce transmission.  They haven’t.  I have to recheck weekly cases every time I do this because minor adjustments keep getting made even months ago.  But here is the update, by week beginning:

July 13—4562 cases

July 20—4742 cases

July 27—4766 cases

August 3—4472 cases

August 10—4348 cases

August 17—4757 cases  (this was a big drop from the last time I ran this analysis in early September, over 200 cases)

August 24—5307 cases

August 31—4483 cases  (Labor Day weekend mostly included)

September 7—4041

September 14—6307

September 21—7268

September 28—7219

Again mandate effective July 25, give it two or three weeks to be effective, if you want to be generous.  Really, no change the first few weeks and now, coincident by the way with more testing, a big jump in cases.  I don’t know how you spin this to demonstrate that the mask mandate limited transmission.  If you look at the sources of transmission in the weekly report, certainly hasn’t done anything to change percent of community transmission either.  I will get this into fancier tables and charts soon and do some averages before and after, but really you just look at the raw numbers and see what is happening.

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