A Quick Minnesota Update

While it may seem like there is a significant number of cases in Minnesota on a daily basis, it is small compared to population, small compared to tests, and hospitalizations and deaths are declining significantly.  Using the state’s date reported numbers, only 2 days in the last 23 have seen ten or more deaths on a day, and only one in the last 11 days has been over 5 deaths.  Hospitalizations are also shrinking.  Daily cases reported may be up somewhat, but they are still below the May peaks, on higher testing volumes, and we would have expected some increase following the July 4th holiday.  At this point any surge from that holiday is likely over.  The last five days have all seen at least 11,000 tests completed and one of those days was  a near all-time high of over 19,000.   Only 4 of the last 19 days have seen less than 10,000 tests performed.  Considering the protests, riots and July 4 holiday, our positivity rate has barely budged.  And what the reduction in deaths and hospitalizations tells us is that the case fatality rate and hospitalization rate, whether considering actual cases reported by the state or the multiplied by ten number that the state believes exists, are shrinking rapidly.  To me, one clear lesson is that the virus has largely hit the vulnerable population in Minnesota and cases from here on will continue to be almost exclusively mild or asymptomatic.  I don’t know what other explanation would account for what we are seeing.  So there is zero reason to cut back on opening up social and business activity, or sending kids back to school.