Current Case Fatality Rates by Age

By June 24, 2020Commentary

The Centers for Disease Control has a coronavirus data tracker on its site which gives regularly updated data on cases and deaths, by age group.  (CDC Data)   Using the combined case and deaths data, we can calculate current case fatality rates (please note, everyone believes there are multiples of undetected cases to detected ones, so this is not the real CFR).  The first age group, 0 to 4, has a serious data error.  It lists 26,045 cases for this age group, which appears accurate, but 1582 deaths which is completely inconsistent with other data on the CDC website listing 13 deaths in this age group, and with all the state data I have looked at, as most states have no deaths in this age group.  So I using 13 as the actual number.  This would be a .05% CFR.

For the 5-17 year old cohort, this is school age children, there were 79906 cases and 26 deaths, or a .03% CFR.

18 to 29 year-olds have 339125 cases and 395 deaths, a .12% CFR.

30-39 year-olds, 328,249 cases, 1137 deaths is a .35% CFR.

40 to 49 year-olds, 325,190 cases and 2804 deaths, a .86% CFR.

Ages 50 to 64, starting to pick up noticeably.  482,338 cases and 14,316 deaths is a 3% CFR.

65 to 74 years old, 185,942 cases and 19,520 deaths, CFR of 10.5%.

5 to 84 cohort, 116,937 cases and 24,621 deaths, a CFR of 21%.

You see the trend and for the last group 85 and over ages, it is really bad.  29,999 deaths out of 98,382 cases.  A 30.5% case fatality rate.

You see the steady climb, accelerating at age 65.  The relative case fatality rate of the 85 and over group compared to the 5-17 year-olds is over a 1000 times higher.  As the data continues to be compiled over the next few weeks, we will see those CFRs for younger people, those under 50, continue to decline, while I expect those in the very oldest groups to be about the same, so the relative risk spread will grow.

Leave a comment