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Happy Screwed Up Model Day

By June 15, 2020Commentary

It is June 15.  I have noted in a couple of earlier posts what the Minnesota model estimated case and death counts would be today under the mitigation of spread tactics we have been using.  I have also noted that our social distancing is not where the model assumed, so we are having more contacts and should have even more cases and deaths than the model projected.   As a reminder, those projections were a million cases and 4300 deaths.  And we are supposedly rapidly climbing up the Governor’s infamous curve, adding thousands of cases and a hundred or more deaths every day.  Uhhh, just a little off.

So everyone should now realize that the model was screwed up.  I and I am sure many other people have given comments and advice to the modelers and they obviously have generally ignored that advice.  Their model is in shambles.  We need to be told what they are doing now.  What steps have they taken to ascertain why the model was so far off?  What revisions have they made or are they going to make to correct their inaccurate formulas?

And we need to hear from the Governor–an apology would be nice, but even an acknowledgement that the model isn’t close to reality would be helpful.  And we should hear whether he is still relying on the model and if so, why, and if not, what is he using for decision-making instead.  This is especially important since he refuses to relinquish his dictatorial powers, partly because I think he enjoys them, but mostly because it is the only way he can pretend there were any circumstance that justified his actions.  There weren’t.

So we can all celebrate that the model was wrong, and there are far fewer cases and deaths than projected.  But we can also be angry, very angry, that our Governor lied to us, and continued to lie to us when it was apparent he was lying, and that he has done so much damage to the state and its citizens lives.

Join the discussion 5 Comments

  • Peter Johan van der Lugt says:

    Sadly, the only accountability most government personas have is at the ballot box (Walz is in till Jan 2023), but unfortunately, many are government bureaucrats are appointed and in Minnesota’s case, we don’t a process for a recall vote. On the other hand, the modelers only answer to themselves; academia with tenure.. uffdaa

  • Harley says:

    Kakistocracy: government by the least competent citizens of a state

    Assisted by the University of Minnesota, currently considering disbanding the University Police dept.

    And support from the local media, unable to ask any difficult questions.

    Welcome to the “Season of Silliness”.

  • Harlan Johnson says:

    Every group needs a leader. Whether it’s a family, a team, a company, college dorm, political party, etc. Minnesota has little or no leadership. Walz ? Laughable. The same for Frey, for Carter, MN Legislature other than Kurt Daudt. We need someone to stand up, in an election year, or any year! The same people that don’t have the nerve to stand up to liberal city councils attempting to defund police departments, are going to lead us through the pandemic?

  • Matt R says:

    Will you please do a bit more quantitative demolition of the U of M model? I think the MDH website has made it more challenging to calculate positive test rates due to reporting case specimen dates differently than test quantities, but perhaps using a 7 day history, I think it shows something like only 1% of tests are coming back positive?!

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