A Nightly News and Research Update

Here is a little more detail about the incredibly honest statements from Norway’s head of state that she probably panicked in her response to the epidemic.   (Norway Story)

The scientific group providing advice to the United Kingdom says that cases in health care settings, especially in nursing homes, account for the vast majority of coronavirus spread and that the actual rate of transmissibility in the community is around .5 in the community outside of these settings.  That means that an infected person is not even infecting one other person on average.  And it compares to estimates early in the epidemic of much higher transmissibility rates.   (UK Story)

Another article notes the incredible stupidity and lack of data or science behind keeping children out of schools.  In fact, the data and science say it is less dangerous for them, and others, for them to be in school than at home.  (Hill Story)

Another story that supports the evolving notion that many people have pre-existing immune defenses against coronavirus from prior infections.  (F1000 Story)  The authors note prior studies finding widespread antibodies against the then-circulating coronavirus strains.  The authors said that T-cell memory that aids in combatting the current strain should exist, a prediction which has been borne out by the more recent studies.  The most likely sites recognized by the prior immune defenses are not in the spike, but in other parts of the virus.  A similar piece of research is here, (JV Paper), which also is based on work predicting where prior immune defenses may line up with the current strain, but also noting that variation in the human genes responsible for presenting foreign substances, like a virus, to the immune system, may lead to variation in the immune system effectiveness.

And here is a paper which states that which is by now obvious.  The forecasts for the epidemic have not been very reliable.  (Medrxiv Paper)   Basically the authors noted that the data available doesn’t follow the common projected trajectories and basically is not exponential.  I think by now we all know how worthless those projections were.

This paper has some data relating to hospitalizations for coronavirus disease in New York City’s public hospitals.  (Medrxiv Paper)  The authors used electronic medical records for their data gathering.  The median age (a median means half above, half below) of those hospitalized was over 61, around 60% were male and 53% had at least one pre-existing disease.  28% of hospitalized patients died.  The median age of those who died was over 71, males made up 63% and chronic disease was omnipresent.