We had some interesting economic reports this week. Unemployment claims were down and remain muted. The Q4 2025 GDP was released. It showed weaker than expected growth, but it actually was expected because the government shutdown took almost a full percentage point off growth. The private sector actually grew fine. And we are seeing both in jobs and the economy a move aways from destructive government spending to productive private spending. Consumer spending was up and so was investment. Exports and imports were both down, likely related to tariff and other trade measures enacted by the Administration. This is “real” or after-inflation GDP, but I don’t know how accurate the inflation adjustment is. Some private sources that use real price data suggest it is lower. According to the BEA, it is running at 3.7% overall, 2.9% for personal consumption expenditures and 2.7% for “core” purchases which takes out food and energy–nothing consumers’ need (that is a joke, just because prices for an item are volatile is no excuse to take them out of the calculation). (BEA Release)
