The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey covers openings, hires, quits and fires for December 2025. This is another survey whose results are dubious in my mind. A number of commentators have described this as a negative report, but I wonder. Among other things, the decline in illegal and legal immigration and the removal of illegal entrants undoubtedly is having a one-time unsettling effect on the labor market. Artificial intelligence may similarly be impacting hiring plans. A closely watched metric is the comparison of unemployed persons to job openings, which has turned to a surplus of unemployed persons. But I think many of these people don’t even want to work and I think many job “openings” aren’t really positions employers intend to fill. So how loose or tight the labor market is won’t necessarily be accurately reflected by this survey. (BLS Release)
Looking at the numbers, openings were down about 600,000 in December and were revised down about 200,000 for November, so a fairly significant drop. Professional and business services, where AI may hit hard, were down 257,000, retail down 195,000 and finance and insurance, another AI target, down 120,000 openings. Openings rose in leisure and hospitality and in government, never a good sign. Hires were basically flat for the month. Total separations were also largely unchanged. Professional and business services has 212,000 total separations, of which 150,000 were quits. This seems odd, given the large drop in openings in that sector. Separations increased in transportation, warehousing and utilities and in government. Quits were noticeably up in retail.
I would also note no rebound in manufacturing openings or hires despite the supposed beneficial impact of tariffs. There is some increase in construction openings and hires, which may be related to AI data center and other plant investments, which may lead to more manufacturing jobs.
