The Census Bureau released data on population changes for the US as a whole and among the states for the year ending July 1, 2025. The general impression, as it has been for years, is that the Dem-run states especially on the West Coast and in the Northeast, are losing population and the Rep-run states in the South and Southwest are gaining. The components of the data are worth a look. Births should be highly accurate as should deaths. The migration data is more suspect, particularly in regard to immigration, and especially illegal immigration. Domestic migration among states should be captured accurately by tax return and other data sources, but it isn’t clear to me how comprehensive this data is, and the Census Bureau workers acknowledge this as a limitation. Overall national population growth slowed, driven by the shutdown of illegal immigration.
Some of the high level results are that California remains the most populous state by a still significant margin. It is followed by Texas, which is gaining rapidly on California, Florida and New York. California and New York contine to experience large population declines. It is a large drop to Pennsylvania, the next largest state. Texas had the largest numeric growth by far, followed by Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. The largest percent growth was in South Carolina, Idaho, North Carolina and Texas. Minnesota had some small growth, which I doubt is accurate. This state is bleeding residents, although the immigrant fraudsters undoubtedly added to some population growth. From July 1, 2020, the state lost 37,000 people to other states but gained 97,000 from international migration. Our reputation for being vulnerable to fraud and overly generous with benefits in general undoubtedly is a factor in international migration.
You would think states like California, New York and Illinois would wake up and change policies, but instead they double down on policies driving out especially working families and the high-income people who pay the vast majority of taxes. California is doing a wealth tax and has massive frauds and waste of taxpayer dollars; New York elects socialists who think they can raise taxes to 100% of income and Illinois is a crime-ridden hellhole run by government employee unions that have bankrupted the state. Meanwhile Texas and Florida and other similar states are driving taxes down and welcoming new businesses.
