People sometimes may want to shorthand the Bureau of Labor Statistics from BLS to BS, due to the constant revisions. But the agency’s reports are the data we have. Some new numbers were released today, covering September. Despite all the concerns about the state of the labor market, with lots of big layoffs reported recently, it appears that the sky is not falling. A higher than consensus expectations, in fact higher than any single estimate, 119,000 jobs were added in September. This, however, is not a particularly big number. At the same time the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, with a particularly notable rise among African-Americans. Some of this is just mathematical as the participation rate increased. I strongly suspect the shutdown and crackdowns on fraud are forcing more Americans to actually look for a job and work.
Of course there were some downside revisions to the prior two months, but not large ones, certainly not like we saw during the prior administration. Also a negative is that much of the job growth is in health care and social assistance, heavily supported by government spending. Some positive signs were a lot of new full-time jobs and fewer part-time ones. Good growth in the private sector and continuing loss of federal government jobs. Despite the tariffs, no increase in manufacturing jobs, hasn’t been one for six months. Employment was up in education and dining and drinking. Jobs were down in professional and business services, where AI will likely have a substantial impact.
Earnings growth has risen 3.8% over the course of the last 12 months, which is ahead of inflation, but that growth is slowing. The illegal immigration policy shift is working, as foreign-born workers declined while native born employees grew by 676,000 this month, and have declined very significantly since the beginning of 2025 when the policy reversal of an open border was reversed. (BLS Report)
