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We Already Know Why There Is a Rise in Autism Diagnoses

By September 7, 2025Commentary3 min read

Note that word “diagnoses”.  It is highly unlikely there is any actual rise in autism.  Instead, driven largely by money, doctors and patient advocacy groups have expanded the criteria for who is considered “autistic”.  Boys are a particular target.  I have explained this before.  It is just like ADHD or any of a number of other conditions that doctors and pharma companies target to increase revenue and medicalize the entire American population.  It is an incredibly dangerous phenomenon, one that labels and often stigmatizes patients, turns normal behavior into a problem that must be cured and keeps patients on dangerous drugs indefinitely, often multiple drugs for multiple conditions, with no understanding of potential drug interactions.  Patient advocacy groups raise more money and get other funding based on higher numbers of people with the condition.

As usual, the best medical research is done outside the US.  US researchers are often driven by ideology and money.  That is why we have such large rates of fraud and errors in medical research.  A very large study from Denmark finds that at least 60% of the increase in diagnoses is from changes in criteria.  I suspect it is much higher and because providers make money treating this condition forever, they are highly motivated to label as many children and now adults as autistic.  This is disgraceful and harmful.  Children ought to be able to grow up with recognition that they may have a wide variety of interactive behaviors and learning styles and not be labeled as “diseased”.   The prevalence rates that people like RFK, Jr. use are grossly overstated as well.  A large Swedish population study found no significant change in autism-related behaviors from 1993 to 2001 and a low prevalence.  What change that has occurred is among behaviors that are not considered “core” autism, such as intellectual or language impairments.

That won’t stop RFK, Jr. from trying to help his trial lawyer pals by lying about the cause and encouraging fake research.  If Dr. Makary and Jay Battacharya stand by and watch this, shame on them.  What does appear to the be the single biggest link to autism, by far.  Genetics–like a lot more of our behavior than we realize, autistic “behaviors” appear to be inherited.  But that answer, like over-diagnosis, won’t satisfy RFK, Jr. or his conspiracy nut and trial lawyer buddies.  (Nature Article)

Kevin Roche

Author Kevin Roche

The Healthy Skeptic is a website about the health care system, and is written by Kevin Roche, who has many years of experience working in the health industry through Roche Consulting, LLC. Mr. Roche is available to assist health care companies through consulting arrangements and may be reached at khroche@healthy-skeptic.com.

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  • Joe K says:

    Asthma is also very over diagnosed, maybe a third of children diagnosed with asthma that dont have it.

    Around age 40 during a routine physical exam , even I was diagnosed with asthma. I didnt find out about until I had trouble getting a life insurance policy since I was rated as high risk with the asthma. Apparently there is a national register for Asthma. It was a truly ridiculous diagnosis, At the time my resting heart rate was 39 (at age 69 it is now 41) and my VO2 max is 54 which at my age is at the 99.5 percentile.

    Asthma, autism, mental health, copd, etc are a few of the many over diagnoses

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