These monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics releases are closely watched but as we are constantly warned, currently based on surveys with very low response rates. Today data for June was issued and was better than expected. In addition, April’s numbers were revised up by 11,000 jobs and May’s by 5,000. By some miracle we are now seeing positive revisions, whereas the Bidementia administration saw relentlessly negative ones. The unemployent rate dropped slightly to 4.1%. The total number of workers dropped slightly, which I again suspect is due to end of illegal immigration and deportation of those already here. That belief is reinforced by the drop in foreign-born workers and the rise in native-born ones in this release. The labor force participation rate continues to be far too low and we have to figure out to get these people to do some work, which would be an enormous boost to the economy and to federal and state government finances.
Average earnings growth was 3.7% year-over-year, which isn’t awful in terms of inflation but isn’t great either. But it is very good for workers, as wages seem to be keeping ahead of reported inflation. Full-time jobs increased while part-time ones declined, which is good. The federal government lost employees, while state and local government jobs rose. Unfortunately many of the other job gains are in health care and social services, which are largely government-supported. Be nice to see some real private sector increases. Despite the gnashing of teeth about Trump’s tariff chaos, the economy actually appears to be humming along at an okay pace. (BLS Release)
