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Another Look at Excess US Deaths

By May 28, 2025Commentary1 min read

In general over the last few decades mortality rates have declined in developed countries.  This is largely due to better heart treatments in particular and some improvement in cancer treatment.  Looking at the period from 1980 to 2023, the US saw slower declines than other countries up to 2019, which I believe is due to some unique factors such as minority percent of population, drug use rates, and homicides.  In 2021 and 2022, the peak of the epidemic, deaths rose more rapidly in the US than in other high-income countries.  And in 2022 and 2023, while the US death rate remained higher, the gap with these other countries lessened.  That may be due to a death pull-forward effect which was more pronounced in the US.  The US mortality rate was partiularly elevated in the young adult group, again likely the impact of high drug overdose deaths and homicides.  (JAMA Article)

Kevin Roche

Author Kevin Roche

The Healthy Skeptic is a website about the health care system, and is written by Kevin Roche, who has many years of experience working in the health industry through Roche Consulting, LLC. Mr. Roche is available to assist health care companies through consulting arrangements and may be reached at khroche@healthy-skeptic.com.

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  • Richard Berger says:

    One thing to keep in mind is that excess deaths are based on actual deaths less expected deaths and only actual deaths can be observed, Genevieve Briand has some interesting work using public data and spreadsheets. The CDC projection of expected deaths does not factor in population growth, the effect of which is to boost the number of excess deaths.

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