As a follow-up to my longer post on autism I would encourage you to read this recent research piece and a recent post on autism numbers and research.
The research comes from the CDC, which despite its issues does have good access to surveillance data. There is a network of 16 centers working in autism and developmental disabilities. The prevalence of these conditions among children aged 4 to 8 in 2022 was analyzed. Boys were three times more likely to be diagnosed than girls, which alone suggests it is very unlikely it has anything to do with environmental toxins. It may have a lot to do about bias against normal boy behavior. There was also very wide variation in diagnoses and actual autism test usage across the sites, suggesting high level of subjectivity in diagnosis. Some states, like California, spend a fortune on screening, etc. and so you get a lot of diagnoses. Everything in this report is consistent with the notion that more autism is solely due to increased screening and testing, which in turn is driven by providers wanting to access the revenue stream attached to these children. (CDC Report)
The post focuses on the genetic component of true autism. An excellent explanation of twin studies is included. Those studies are very strongly evidence that true autism is largely genetic. What has been observed as autistic behavior for an extended time is limited to relatively severe autism and it is very unlikely that the proportion of those cases has increased. The Swedish study referenced attributes about 83% of the cases to genetics. (Medscape Article)
“ Boys were three times more likely to be diagnosed than girls, which alone suggests it is very unlikely it has anything to do with environmental toxins.”
Kevin, there may be a genetic propensity in boys that’s triggered by toxins in the environment/vaccines.
Thank you for your work.
Profound Autism: Prevalence, Trends, and Public Health Implications
Defining Profound Autism
Profound autism is characterized by significant cognitive impairments (IQ below 50) and limited or absent verbal communication. Individuals with profound autism often require substantial support in daily living and may exhibit behaviors such as self-injury or aggression. The term was introduced to distinguish this subgroup within the autism spectrum, emphasizing their distinct needs.
Prevalence and Demographics
A 2023 CDC study found that approximately 26.7% of 8-year-old children diagnosed with autism met the criteria for profound autism. This subgroup is more likely to include females, individuals from racial and ethnic minority groups, and those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. Additionally, factors such as preterm birth and low birth weight are more common among this population.
Autism Science Foundation
Trends Over Time
Between 2000 and 2016, the prevalence of profound autism among 8-year-olds increased from 2.68 to 4.59 per 1,000 children. This represents a 71% increase over 16 years. In contrast, the prevalence of non-profound autism rose more sharply during the same period.
Autism Science Foundation
Quality of Life and Independence
Individuals with profound autism often face significant challenges in achieving independence. Many require lifelong support for basic activities such as communication, self-care, and safety. Co-occurring conditions like epilepsy and severe behavioral issues further complicate their ability to live independently.
Autism Science Foundation
CDC Reporting and Research Gaps
While the CDC’s 2025 report provides updated statistics on autism prevalence, it does not specifically address profound autism or its causes. This omission underscores the need for more targeted research and data collection to better understand and support this subgroup.
CDC
Conclusion
Profound autism represents a significant portion of the autism spectrum and poses unique challenges for individuals, families, and healthcare systems. Increased awareness, research, and tailored support services are essential to address the needs of this growing population.
References
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2023). The Prevalence and Characteristics of Children With Profound Autism. [PDF].
CDC Stacks
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2025). Prevalence and Early Identification of Autism Spectrum Disorder Among Children Aged 4 and 8 Years — Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, 11 Sites, United States, 2022. [PDF].
CDC
Autism Science Foundation. (2023). CDC Reports Profound Autism Statistics For The First Time. [Press Release].
Autism Science Foundation
The Lancet Commission on the Future of Care and Clinical Research in Autism. (2021). [Report].
Possibly one other factor than genetics
My observation is the older the parent at the child’s birth, the higher the risk of autism. I have no information on whether it is the age of the mother or the father age at the time of the child’s birth is the more likely factor. Again its only my personal observation that there appears to a high correlation based on the age of the parent.
Unfortunately, there doesnt seem to be data compiled on the autism rates based on parents age. second part of the question is whether there has been an increase in autism rates over the last 100 or so years by the various demographic sub groups, age, race, education, etc. Lots of good information available if properly analyzed